So since my original post of Oscar picks I have changed several times. Nothing too drastic, but you can't really make truly educated estimates as to who will win at the Academy until the week of the Awards and until the different film guilds have given their awards out. The people who vote in the Academy are all guild members, so their awards are always the most indicative of what will win at the Academy. This year was no exception.
My final picks to win in the major categories were:
Colin Firth for Best Actor
Christian Bale for Best Supporting Actor
Natalie Portman for Best Actress
Melissa Leo for Best Supporting Actress
Toy Story 3 for Best Animated Film
Roger Deakins for Best Cinematography (Wally Pfister received the Award)
David Fincher for Best Director (Tom Hooper received the Award)
The King's Speech for Best Picture
The Social Network for Best Adapted Screenplay
The King's Speech for Best Original Screenplay
In total I was right in 15 of the 19 nominees that I finally predicted. Go with the Guild. It's almost always right. So there weren't any major upsets this year. It's always more exciting when something crazy happens. Oh well, The King's Speech rules. The long run will show that it wasn't a very important film, just like Ghandi and Chariot's of Fire. But tonight its The King of the World.
Here is the original post for comparison: